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This chapter examines the future of terrorism in the United States as well as in the major geographic
regions of the world. The author attempts to identify future terrorists, their targets, their base of
operations, how they will attempt to achieve their objectives, and he predicts that incidents of terrorism
will increase in the immediate years ahead. He also predicts that nuclear, biological, and chemical
weapons will become standard weapons in the terrorist's arsenal and concludes that knowledge about
terrorists and their methods and goals is essential if terrorism is to be defeated. [lb]
Keyword(s): future trends; terrorist groups and activities; combating terrorism
New Scientist. "Strike at Will," New Scientist, [London], 157, No. 2126, March 21, 1998, 3.
The writer discusses the difficulties associated with preparing for attacks on cities by terrorists equipped
with biological weapons. In many large cities throughout the world, emergency services have made plans
to deal with bioterrorist attacks. Despite these plans, there are real worries that no one can really predict
just what type of incident could come next and how to cope with it effectively. The more we prepare for
bioterrorist attacks, the worse it all seems. The fact remains that many deadly agents are available from
hospitals or laboratories that could, in the hands of anyone with some kind of university-level knowledge
of microbiology, be made in useful amounts. Unlike "conventional" extremists who are after political
goals, the new breed of terrorists may simply be out to punish society or settle a grudge. The article
concludes that there will be no quick fixes for the threats from bioterrorism.
Keyword(s): biological terrorism; CBRNC; biological weapons of mass destruction; counterterrorism;
combating terrorism; antiterrorism; weapons of mass destruction in urban areas
Noah, D.L., A.L. Sobel, S.M. Ostroff, and J.A. Kildew. "Biological Warfare Training: Infectious Disease
Outbreak Differentiation Criteria," Military Medicine, 163, No. 4, April 1998, 198-201.
The threat of biological terrorism and warfare may increase as the availability of weaponizable agents
increases, the relative production costs of these agents decrease, and, most importantly, there exist
terrorist groups willing to use them. Therefore, an important consideration is the ability to differentiate
between natural and intentional outbreaks. Certain attributes of a disease outbreak may combine to
provide convincing evidence of intentional causation. These potentially differentiating criteria include the
proportion of combatants at risk, number of cases, geographic location, concurrence with belligerent
activities of potential adversaries, and so forth.
Keyword(s): biological terrorism; CBRNC; antiterrorism; combating terrorism; biological agent
detection; biological attacks; biological decontamination
57
Library of Congress Federal Research Division Future Trends in Terrorism
Noble, Ronald K. "A Neglected Anti-Terror Weapon," New York Times, September 9, 1998, A25.
One step that the United States can take to increase its ability to catch international criminals and
terrorists is to strengthen Interpol, the world's largest international police organization, embracing 177
countries. Fighting terrorism requires a lot of routine but important police work--tracking suspects,
following leads, and uncovering criminal patterns. The best way to do this work is to rely on domestic
law enforcement offices throughout the world. Interpol was created for this very purpose. Through its
headquarters in Lyons, France, Interpol is linked to domestic police forces throughout the world. In
theory, each local police agency should be able to communicate directly with the others in a matter of
seconds. Sometimes the system works. Interpol also regularly issues notices on the possible whereabouts
of dangerous fugitives.
Keyword(s): combating terrorism; counterterrorism; antiterrorism
Office of Intelligence and Threat Analysis, Bureau of Diplomatic Security. Significant Incidents of
Political Violence Against Americans 1997. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, 1998.
This annual publication is intended to provide a comprehensive picture of the broad spectrum of political
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